The idea behind EMMA comes from a body of observational research, and it is worth being precise about what kind of evidence that is.
The foundational study, published in the American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology in 2016, was a small case-control comparison rather than a trial: 35 infertile patients undergoing IVF, whose outcomes were compared once the endometrium had been classified receptive. It reported live birth in 58.8 per cent of the Lactobacillus-dominant group and 6.
7 per cent of the non-dominant group. The paper publishes those outcomes as rates rather than counts, and the rates resolve to only one possible pair of groups: 10 live births among 17 women in the dominant group, and 1 live birth among 15 women in the non-dominant group.
One baby. That is the whole of the non-dominant result, and it is why we would ask you to hold these numbers very lightly rather than let them sit there looking decisive. A second baby among those 15 women would double the lower figure; one fewer among the 17 would pull the higher one down by six points.
Nobody was randomised, so the two groups could have differed in age, embryo quality or underlying diagnosis every bit as much as they differed in bacteria — and with 17 women against 15 there is no way to separate those things out. A gap this dramatic from a base this small is precisely the kind of early result that larger work often fails to reproduce.
We quote it because it is the study the test was built on, not because we think it tells you what will happen to you.
A larger and better-designed study followed in the journal Microbiome in 2022: a multicentre prospective observational study of 342 infertile patients. It found that a dysbiotic profile made up of Atopobium, Bifidobacterium, Chryseobacterium, Gardnerella, Haemophilus, Klebsiella, Neisseria, Staphylococcus and Streptococcus was associated with unsuccessful outcomes, and that Lactobacillus was consistently enriched in the patients who went on to have a live birth.
“Associated with” is the load-bearing phrase. Both studies are observational: they recorded a pattern between what was in the sample and what happened afterwards. Neither randomised anyone to treatment, so neither can show that changing the microbiome changes the outcome. It is entirely possible that a dysbiotic lining is a marker of some other problem rather than the cause of one. ESHRE did not simply leave that question hanging: its 2023 good practice recommendations state plainly that uterine and vaginal microbiome profiling is not recommended.
There is a further finding worth sitting with if your reason for testing is repeated failed transfers rather than repeated losses. A 2024 systematic review and meta-analysis in Frontiers in Immunology found chronic endometritis in 37.6 per cent of women with recurrent pregnancy loss (184 of 489) against 16.4 per cent of controls (57 of 346) — a clear and statistically significant difference.
For recurrent implantation failure, the same review found no association: chronic endometritis in 4 of 63 women with implantation failure (6.35 per cent) against 4 of 69 controls (5.8 per cent), an odds ratio of 1.10, confidence interval 0.26 to 4.61, p = 0.90. The rates in the two groups were, in the reviewers’ own words, comparable. They also point out that the whole comparison rests on 132 women, which is too few to settle the question either way.
For contrast, ERA has been through a proper randomised controlled trial — 767 patients, double-blind, published in JAMA in 2022 — and receptivity-guided timing did not significantly improve live birth, at 58.5 per cent against 61.9 per cent for standard timing. That is why the HFEA rates endometrial receptivity testing red. No equivalent trial has been run for EMMA.
Its absence from the HFEA list reflects the fact that it has not been assessed, not that it has passed. If you would like to work through what that means for your own situation, that is what the gynaecology consultation is for.