The trial that matters most was published in JAMA in 2022 by Doyle and colleagues. It was a double-blind randomised controlled trial across 30 sites, with 767 patients, all of whom had at least one chromosomally normal (euploid) embryo. Half had their frozen embryo transfer timed by endometrial receptivity testing; half had it timed by the standard protocol. Neither the patients nor the clinicians knew which group they were in.
The live birth rate was 58.5 per cent (223 of 381 patients) in the receptivity-tested group and 61.9 per cent (239 of 386) in the standard-timing group. The difference was −3.4 percentage points, with a confidence interval running from −10.3 to +3.5, and a p-value of 0.38.
In plain English: no benefit was detected, the result is entirely compatible with the test making no difference at all, and it is also compatible with a modest harm.
The authors’ conclusion was that, in patients whose IVF cycle produced a euploid blastocyst, using receptivity testing to time the frozen embryo transfer did not significantly improve the rate of live birth compared with standard timing.
This is about as strong as fertility evidence gets. Randomising patients removes the bias that makes observational studies look favourable, and blinding removes the effect of expectation on both sides. It is why the HFEA’s rating is red — the most negative of its five ratings — rather than grey, which the regulator uses when there is not enough moderate or high quality evidence to rate an add-on at all.
The main study cited in the test’s favour is a 2020 multicentre trial by Simón and colleagues, who developed the test, in which 458 patients were randomised across 16 clinics. It is worth understanding what that trial found.
On intention-to-treat analysis — the analysis that counts everyone who was randomised, and the one that protects against bias — outcomes were comparable across groups. The impressive-looking figures come from the per-protocol analysis, which counts only the patients who completed the protocol, and around half the participants dropped out.
Dropout on that scale can manufacture a difference where none exists, which is why intention-to-treat is the primary analysis.
The professional bodies have landed in the same place. ESHRE’s 2023 good practice recommendations on recurrent implantation failure state that there are insufficient data to recommend routine use of any commercially available endometrial receptivity test to diagnose the cause of implantation failure. A 2021 critique in Human Reproduction Open went further, questioning the reproducibility of the gene signature and the operator-dependence of the biopsy itself.
We are not aware of good evidence that the ERA test improves anyone’s chance of a live birth, and we will not tell you otherwise.