When you have a positive pregnancy test but a transvaginal scan cannot yet see a pregnancy either inside or outside the womb, UK guidance calls it a pregnancy of unknown location (NICE NG126). It is a label, not a diagnosis. The pregnancy may be too early to see, a miscarriage may already have completed, or it may be ectopic — which is why NICE advises that it be treated as a possible ectopic pregnancy until its location is known.
The discriminatory zone is the hCG level above which a pregnancy in the womb would be expected to show on a transvaginal scan. The idea predates today's scanners, and the numbers have moved. In a 2013 study of 651 early pregnancies in women with bleeding or pain, a gestational sac could be seen in viable pregnancies at an hCG as low as 390 mIU/mL, but a sac was only predicted to show 99% of the time once hCG reached 3,510 mIU/mL — higher than the cut-offs traditionally used (Connolly et al., Obstetrics & Gynecology).
This is why NICE does not rely on a single hCG cut-off to say where a pregnancy is. It advises clinicians not to use hCG to determine the location at all, but to use the trend to judge how the pregnancy tissue is growing, alongside the scan and your symptoms. Serial hCG alone misreads some pregnancies in both directions: in one analysis, about one in five ectopic pregnancies showed a rise similar to a pregnancy in the womb (Morse et al., 2012).
In practice, from around 6 weeks a viability scan can often show where the pregnancy is and whether there is a heartbeat — information no blood test can give. NICE also cautions that very early on a diagnosis from a single scan is not always certain, and a repeat scan at least 7 days later is sometimes needed before anything is concluded.